Zo komt ons oordeel tot stand

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{
  "conservative": 21,
  "base": 25,
  "favourable": 31
}

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CBS StatLine 85592NED: June 2026 marginal all-in ≈25.1 ct (13.97 delivery + 11.085 tax incl. btw) — founder approved 2026-07-27; refresh monthly

Waarde uit het register

{
  "salderingEra": {
    "exportCompCt": {
      "conservative": 8,
      "base": 5,
      "favourable": 4
    },
    "feedInChargeCt": {
      "conservative": 0,
      "base": 6,
      "favourable": 11
    }
  },
  "floorEra": {
    "exportCompCt": {
      "conservative": 7,
      "base": 6.5,
      "favourable": 6.5
    },
    "feedInChargeCt": {
      "conservative": 0,
      "base": 4.5,
      "favourable": 6.25
    }
  },
  "postFloorEra": {
    "exportCompCt": {
      "conservative": 6,
      "base": 4,
      "favourable": 2
    },
    "feedInChargeCt": {
      "conservative": 0,
      "base": 2,
      "favourable": 2
    }
  }
}

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Stb. 2025, 17 art. 2.34 lid 7/9 + announced 2027 supplier tariffs (dossier §5/§6) — founder approved 2026-07-27; refresh on supplier publications

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7

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Editorial policy: a battery is a 10–15 year asset, so a buy signal needs margin for tariff risk, degradation and the 2030 regime change — memo P1, founder approved 2026-07-29

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10

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Editorial policy: between 7 and 10 years the honest answer is conditional, which is what WACHT says — memo P2, founder approved 2026-07-29

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12

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Editorial policy: beyond 12 years payback exceeds most usable warranty terms and the post-2030 regime is unknowable — memo P3, founder approved 2026-07-29

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0.7

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Editorial policy: a buy signal keeps the manufacturer liable for the whole payback period with a third of the term as buffer — memo P4, founder approved 2026-07-29

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1.3

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Editorial policy: payback more than 30% beyond warranty relies on unwarranted years — memo P5, founder approved 2026-07-29

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0

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Model policy: with consumption and PV production now required inputs, 'high confidence' means the user supplied every real number — memo M2, founder approved 2026-07-29

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2

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Model policy: three or more estimated inputs is a low-confidence result and says so — memo M3, founder approved 2026-07-29

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1.5

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Calibrated from the Phase C grid (scripts/calibration/oversize.ts, docs/calibration/oversize-and-overlap.md): utilization falls 177 → 84 → 50 → 34 equivalent cycles/yr across size ratios and flattens beyond ~1.5, so marginal capacity stops cycling there. The previous value of 2 flagged only 4 of 81 cells. Founder approved 2026-07-29; thin sample above ratio 1.5 (n=2 per band) — densify the grid post-launch

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3

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Editorial/UX policy: with 4 engine-eligible batteries a cap of 4 would present the whole catalogue as a shortlist — memo P6, founder approved 2026-07-29

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15

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Model policy: the usable life a home battery is sold and warranted for (10–15 years), rather than the 10-year degradation reference. Raised from 10 on 2026-07-30; memo M1's counter-argument — that years beyond 10 rest on postFloorEra tariffs — is accepted and disclosed rather than resolved

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0.07

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Calibrated against chronological monthly dischargeable demand (scripts/calibration/overlap.ts, docs/calibration/oversize-and-overlap.md): the zero-bias value over 27 cells x 12 months with eveningShare held at 0.6465. Replaces 0.05, which overstated servable demand by +5.9 kWh/month (battery-favourable). The minimum-RMSE value 0.121 was rejected: it shifts the approved capture triple and raises unsolvable cells from 1 to 5. Founder approved 2026-07-29

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8

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Model policy: usable PV-surplus charging window per day, capping monthly charge by inverter power (spec v2 §3.3) — founder approved 2026-07-29

Waarde uit het register

{
  "thuis_overdag": 0.35,
  "gemengd": 0.28,
  "werkend_buitenshuis": 0.19
}

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TNO 2022 P10584 + CE Delft/TNO 230470 + CE Delft/VEH 240329 measured (NL avg 30–35%); occupancy split per MCS MGD 003 — founder approved 2026-07-27

Waarde uit het register

{
  "zuid": 1,
  "oost_west": 0.79,
  "noord": 0.52
}

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PVGIS v5.2 PVcalc, De Bilt 52.10/5.18, 35°, loss 14% — extracted 2026-07-26, founder approved 2026-07-27

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0.6465

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MFFBAS E1A 2026: 64.65% of annual consumption falls 16:00–08:00 — founder approved 2026-07-27

Waarde uit het register

{
  "zuid": [
    0.03412248850157347,
    0.04869523117889131,
    0.08778503994190269,
    0.11948680706850642,
    0.12526748971193416,
    0.12192689421447592,
    0.1231759864439603,
    0.11151779230210603,
    0.09316872427983539,
    0.06742193173565722,
    0.03904139433551198,
    0.028390220285645123
  ],
  "oost_west": [
    0.020722219503841077,
    0.03693056710867545,
    0.07965944120957089,
    0.1230366492146597,
    0.14270685521358323,
    0.1457283358614278,
    0.14438273719234723,
    0.1221803591525175,
    0.0898125948035426,
    0.05400743749082547,
    0.025150462396633558,
    0.015682340852375597
  ],
  "noord": [
    0.016096876615225582,
    0.0275603632873071,
    0.053680868345270624,
    0.10835856161854834,
    0.16565753525806692,
    0.18675699623421696,
    0.1786347190430481,
    0.12764896994757444,
    0.06577198552757883,
    0.03813778335671565,
    0.018995052794801744,
    0.01270028797164587
  ]
}

Bron uit het register

PVGIS v5.2 PVcalc monthly E_m, De Bilt 52.10/5.18, 35°, loss 14% — extracted 2026-07-26, founder approved 2026-07-27

Waarde uit het register

[
  0.09951819903639808,
  0.0847971695943392,
  0.08915617831235663,
  0.0800261600523201,
  0.07622615245230491,
  0.07387214774429549,
  0.07543015086030172,
  0.07578415156830315,
  0.07458614917229835,
  0.08143916287832575,
  0.08928117856235714,
  0.09988319976639953
]

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MFFBAS Standaardprofielen elektriciteit 2026 v1.00 (E1A AZI afname, 35,040 quarter-hours) — extracted 2026-07-27, founder approved 2026-07-27

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0.7

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Modal end-of-warranty retention across the catalogue's published warranties: BYD 60%, Huawei 60% EOL, sonnen 70%, EcoFlow 70%, AlphaESS 70-80% by scenario, Tesla 80% (docs/battery-catalog/fixed-rte-research.md). Applied where a manufacturer publishes no floor. Founder approved 2026-07-29 under memo decision D2

Waarde uit het register

{
  "high": 0.85,
  "low": 0.54,
  "ratioStart": 0.35,
  "ratioEnd": 0.8
}

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Piecewise-linear fit on the Phase C grid (80 solvable cells) against the binding ratio built from the MONTHLY MODEL's own theoretical charge and deficit heuristic — the quantities simulate.ts computes at runtime, so the fitted variable matches the shipped one (scripts/calibration/capture-fit.ts, docs/calibration/capture-factor-function.md). R² 0.578; RMSE 0.163 → 0.092 against flat 0.70; bias −0.043 → +0.001. Founder approved 2026-07-30

Waarde uit het register

{
  "conservative": 0.786,
  "base": 1,
  "favourable": 1.214
}

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The 0.55/0.70/0.85 capture triple approved 2026-07-27, re-expressed as ratios to its base (0.55/0.70 and 0.85/0.70) so the approved spread survives the move to a curve. Not separately calibrated. Founder approved 2026-07-30

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0.8

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Model constant for the plug-in track, where no manufacturer publishes an AC-AC round-trip efficiency (docs/battery-catalog/plug-in-rte-research.md). Set below the round-trip implied by the category's published one-way maxima (Marstek >93.5% one-way; Zendure up to 96% one-way at MPP). Disclosed as assumed on every surface that uses it; replaced per product the moment a real figure exists. Founder approved 2026-07-30